As the Syrian civil conflict enters its thirteenth year, the resurgence of rebel offensives in various provinces is raising concerns among citizens and international observers alike. This article examines the current state of the rebel offensive, its implications for the region, and the responses from various stakeholders.
Background of the Conflict
The Syrian civil war began in 2011, initially as a peaceful uprising against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Over the years, the conflict has evolved into a complex war involving multiple factions, including government forces, Kurdish groups, ISIS remnants, and various rebel factions. This fragmentation has led to a protracted and devastating conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions.
Recent Developments
In recent months, rebel forces have intensified their operations, particularly in the northern regions of Syria, including Idlib and Aleppo. These offensives are largely driven by a combination of factors: a push to regain territory lost to government forces, strategic support from foreign backers, and growing dissatisfaction among the local population with the Assad regime’s governance.
Reports indicate that groups such as the Free Syrian Army and other Islamist factions are joining forces to mount coordinated attacks on military checkpoints and supply routes. These offensives have resulted in significant casualties on both sides and have exacerbated the already dire humanitarian situation.
Last week, rebel forces regained control of almost the entire city of Aleppo, marking the most substantial advancements for the opposition in years. With their sights set on Damascus, the effectiveness of Assad’s military in defending against these advances appears increasingly doubtful, particularly as their allies, Russia and Iran, are preoccupied with other conflicts.
What is happening with the offensive?
Last Wednesday, a coalition of armed rebel groups initiated a major offensive, and by Friday, they had regained control of almost all of Aleppo, Syria’s economic hub. This marked both a symbolic and strategic win for the rebels. Aleppo’s capture by Assad’s forces in 2016 was considered a turning point that shifted the war in his favor.
Rebel forces also made advances in the northwest, capturing territories in the Idlib and Hama provinces.
Latest developments
On Tuesday, fighting continued near Hama city, situated between Aleppo and Damascus. The rebels, who are now about six miles from Hama, claim to have taken control of three nearby towns, according to The Washington Post. Meanwhile, the area has come under heavy airstrikes by Russian and Syrian forces, and the government has managed to reclaim some lost ground. Syrian state media reported that government troops were being reinforced in preparation for a counteroffensive.
Syrian and Russian forces also conducted airstrikes on Aleppo and Idlib on Monday, as reported by the Syrian Civil Defense, also known as the White Helmets.
At the same time, Russian and Iranian officials reaffirmed their support for the Assad government through public statements and diplomatic calls. In contrast, Turkey urged Assad’s regime to engage in talks with the opposition.
Who are the rebels?
The opposition fighters are a coalition of diverse groups that have at times opposed each other during the war. They are now largely united under the leadership of Hayʼat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist group supported by Turkey but labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. HTS, led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, evolved from the former Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and maintains control over much of Idlib province.
Another key group in the rebel coalition is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which consists of Turkish-backed forces. The SNA recently took control of Tel Rifaat, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which received U.S. support during the fight against ISIS, are also involved. Though they have clashed with the SNA in the past, the SDF announced Tuesday that they had seized seven villages from government forces. However, Syrian state media denied these claims.
Why is this happening now?
The offensive coincides with distractions faced by Assad’s key allies — Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah — as they deal with other conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan highlighted this point in an interview, suggesting that these distractions have weakened Assad’s backers.
Meanwhile, the U.S. National Security Council stated that the Biden administration was closely monitoring the situation but stressed that the U.S. had no involvement in the offensive. The U.S. has also called for de-escalation to avoid further escalation of the conflict.