The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are preparing for potential cyberattacks and other forms of retaliation as they finalize their long-planned exit from the Soviet-era BRELL power grid, which connects them to Russia and Belarus. The switch to the European Union’s regional electricity network, set for February 9, marks a significant step in the Baltics’ efforts to reduce their energy dependence on Moscow. However, the move has heightened concerns about Russian retaliation, particularly in the form of cyberattacks targeting critical energy infrastructure.
A Historic Shift
The BRELL grid, established during the Soviet era, has long tied the Baltic states to Russia and Belarus for electricity. The decision to disconnect and integrate with the EU’s power network has been years in the making, symbolizing the Baltics’ broader shift toward European integration and away from Russian influence.
Preparing for Retaliation
Security officials in the Baltics are on high alert, anticipating that Moscow may respond with cyberattacks or other disruptive actions. Gert Auväärt, head of Estonia’s Cyber Security Centre, confirmed that the country has prepared for various risk scenarios, including cyberthreats. Estonia has mobilized its cyber reserve, which includes a volunteer group of cyber defenders from the Estonian Defence League, and is working closely with Latvia and Lithuania to address potential threats.
Lithuania’s Energy Minister, Žygimantas Vaičiūnas, expressed confidence that the transition would be smooth but acknowledged that authorities are prepared for worst-case scenarios. Lithuania has implemented additional security measures, including anti-drone systems and physical barriers around key energy infrastructure.
Estonia’s state-owned gas and power grid operator, Elering, has also taken extra precautions, such as restricting VPN access for external companies that maintain its systems. Erkki Sapp, a member of Elering’s management board, emphasized that the Estonian government is treating the situation with utmost seriousness.
Russia’s Cyber Threat
Experts warn that Russia has both the capability and the history of targeting energy infrastructure in other countries. Joe Marshall, a senior security strategist at Cisco’s Talos cyber threat intelligence division, noted that Russia is one of the few nations that has actively disrupted the power grids of sovereign states. “They clearly have the means, the capability, the knowledge to conduct such a cyber operation,” he said.
Russian state-linked hacking groups, including the elite Sandworm unit, have been increasingly active in targeting energy systems across Eastern Europe. Sandworm, which has been implicated in cyberattacks on Ukraine’s power grid, has also probed other countries in the region for vulnerabilities. John Hultquist, chief analyst at Mandiant, Google’s cyber defense and threat intelligence firm, cautioned that these groups “shouldn’t be taken lightly, especially now.”
Broader Security Concerns
Beyond cyberattacks, the Baltics are also contending with suspected Russian sabotage of subsea energy and data cables in the Baltic Sea. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal suggested that these attacks may be intended as a reminder of Russia’s enduring influence in the region. “It probably could be [the] intended message that the Baltics and Nordics do not live well and do not work well without Russia’s embrace,” he said.
Despite these challenges, the Baltics remain committed to their decoupling from the BRELL grid. “We will decouple anyway … because Russia is not a reliable partner,” Michal stated.
A Symbolic and Strategic Move
The transition represents more than just a technical shift in energy infrastructure—it is a symbolic and strategic step toward greater energy independence and alignment with European partners. As the Baltics take this historic step, they are acutely aware of the risks but determined to move forward, underscoring their resolve to break free from Moscow’s influence and secure their future within the European framework.
This article has been updated to clarify that the switch will occur on the night of February 8 to February 9.
